Institute of Modern Russia

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Poisonous Maneuvers

Crucial facts about the politics of Navalny’s poisoning

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07 October 2020

Olga Khvostunova

The attempt on the life of opposition leader Alexei Navalny has become one of the central political events in Russia, but most Russians do not believe that the oppositionist was deliberately poisoned. Despite criticism from Western leaders, the Kremlin refuses to open a criminal investigation and continues to manipulate the facts. IMR’s analysis shows that the accusations made against the Russian state about the illegal use of chemical weapons are valid, but evidence is insufficient. International sanctions are imminent, as the West seeks to punish the Putin regime, but they will likely hurt less than the destruction of Russia’s special relations with Germany.

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How to Win Votes and Mobilize People in Russia

A closer look at the September regional elections

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10 September 2020

András Tóth-Czifra

On September 13, Russia will hold its annual “single day of voting” with dozens of regions electing representatives to a range of public offices. While few Western observers pay close attention to Russian regional politics, these elections may prove more interesting than usual.

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Russian Compatriots in the US: Soft Power Tools or Trojan Horses?

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02 September 2020

Anna Williams

Over the last decade, Russia’s compatriot policy—officially represented as a soft power tool for advancing Russian culture—has been increasingly used by the Kremlin as a cover to promote its geopolitical interests. Analysis of the activities of the Russian compatriot organizations in the US shows that they tend to speak on behalf of the entire Russian diaspora, hijacking a good-natured debate on US-Russian relations and conflating the often diverging interests of the Russian Americans.

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What Putin wants from Lukashenko

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25 August 2020

Dmitry Shlapentokh

Despite its proclaimed support for the Lukashenko regime, the Kremlin is increasingly frustrated with the Belarusian president, who has skillfully avoided integration with Russia and engaged in a multivector foreign policy with the West. A democratic alternative to Lukashenko with a proper privatization program will likely be accepted by Moscow as it seeks to gain access to key assets of the Belarusian economy.

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COVID-19 in Russia: appearance vs reality

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21 August 2020

Robert Ian Abbott

Russia scores headlines as it has registered first COVID-19 vaccine, but this would-be “Sputnik moment” is undermined by the country’s questionable coronavirus statistics. According to some estimates, over 50 percent of coronavirus-related deaths remain underreported.

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U.S. Oil Deal in Syria Angers the Kremlin

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18 August 2020

Ksenia Svetlova

In early August, the U.S. firm signed a surprise deal with the Syrian Kurds to revamp oil fields in northeastern Syria. The deal clearly irritated Moscow, which doesn’t hide its intentions to gain control over oil production in the country and prop up Bashar Assad’s heavily oil-reliant regime. As the Syrian economy continues to deteriorate, U.S.-Russia tensions in the region are likely to grow.

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With or Without Lukashenko, Belarus Will Change

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11 August 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

The post-election protests gripping Belarus now are part of an established cycle of rigged elections and street mobilization spanning twenty years. President Alexander Lukashenko may survive this challenge: last night, his key opponent, Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, was forced to leave the country. But her campaign captured the public’s desire for change that will likely bring about the end of the regime.

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How Putin’s Constitutional Amendments Affect the Judiciary

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04 August 2020

Ekaterina Mishina

Amendments to the Russian Constitution that came into force a month ago, introduced unprecedented changes to the country’s Basic Law—unseen since its adoption almost 27 years ago. Both legal practitioners and scholars agree that constitutional rights and freedoms of the Russian people are now in jeopardy.

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How the Putin Regime Perceives US Protests

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29 July 2020

Dmitry Shlapentokh

As the protests over racial injustice and police brutality continue in the United States, the Kremlin is closely watching, but seemingly remains unfazed. The reason for this calm is that the imagery of chaos and violence coming from America validates one of Vladimir Putin’s core messages: liberal ideas lead to disorder, while a strong hand guarantees stability.

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The arrest of Sergei Furgal showcases the hollowness of the Kremlin’s party system

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21 July 2020

Yana Gorokhovskaia

On July 20, Vladimir Putin finally dismissed Sergei Furgal, governor of Russia’s Far Eastern region of Khabarovsk Krai, who had been earlier arrested on murder charges. His replacement was also named—fellow LDPR member Mikhail Degtyarev. Furgal’s arrest on July 9 sparked massive protests in Khabarovsk that have continued for over 10 days. While arrests of politicians have become routine in Russia, the scale of the unrest in Khabarovsk highlights the growing tension between Moscow and the regions, as well as the artificial nature of the party system.